A Seller's Market

For the moment, I'm choosing to ignore everything else that's going on around the trade deadline to focus in on one case, a case so extremely stupid that at least one of the parties involved should be charged with something, be it larceny, corruption, first-degree murder, war crimes; I'm not really bothered, just as long as someone gets shot for it.

Tampa Bay gets: Shane O'Brien, 3rd-round pick in 2008.
Anaheim gets: Gerald Coleman, 1st-round pick in 2007.

Gerald Coleman is sitting behind at least Giguere and Bryzgalov on the Ducks depth chart, and the 3rd-rounder is probably worth about as much as him in this context, so we can strip those away. What we're left with is Shane O'Brien for a 1st-round pick this year. Tampa Bay currently sit third in the Eastern Conference standings and would be sixth overall if the season ended now, putting this pick at #25. This trade implies that Shane O'Brien is worth the same as Zach Hamill, for instance, Colton Gillies, maybe Tyson Sexsmith, and this is the clearest sign yet that the trade market has gone crazy.

You might think that's crazy. You might think the Nagy trade fits the bill better, or possibly the Forsberg trade, and those are fair viewpoints. But look closer at those trades - the Coyotes could probably have strung Dallas out for more, possibly another pick this year or a better quality player than Mathias Tjarnqvist; the Predators already have a stable of great young players, and it's likely neither Upshall nor Parent would have got any significant playing time for a number of years, if at all with Nashville. But while these have contributed to the problems, the O'Brien trade has set the bar at a disturbing level. Jay Feaster had admitted he'd be willing to overpay for a player who'd be a perfect fit with the Bolts, and while O'Brien is far from a perfect fit, it's obvious he has overpaid here. But this seems to have become a theme this year, and it's not one I'm confident about.

The day after the O'Brien trade went through, two trades took place. One saw Craig Rivet go to San Jose, the other saw Atlanta claim Keith Tkachuk. The Rivet trade went like this:

San Jose gets: Craig Rivet, 5th-round pick in 2008.
Montreal gets: Josh Gorges, 1st-round pick in 2007.

Rivet, for all his many faults I have with him, is a good defensemen, definitely a top-4 player; Gorges, on the other hand, is a mediocre prospect who doesn't look like he'll make any real difference to the Montreal defensive corps. While you can't exactly equate Gorges to the 5th-round pick this time, the upshot of the deal is that Montreal have given up a good blueliner for a 1st-round pick that will almost certainly be later than their own. It's not strictly overpaying, because I get the vibe that San Jose went looking for Rivet rather than the other way around, but the deal is disturbing because it is unbalanced.

The other trade mentioned above went as follows:

Atlanta gets: Keith Tkachuk.
St. Louis gets: Glen Metropolit, 1st-round pick in 2007, 3rd-round pick in 2007, 2nd-round pick in 2008 and a conditional 1st-round pick in 2008.

If Tkachuk resigns with the Thrashers in the offseason, St. Louis will have taken two 1st-round picks, a 2nd-round pick and a 3rd-round pick as well as a roster player for one man. Tkachuk may bring something to the table for Atlanta in the postseason, but considering they're still fighting for a place, things look very tenuous for them, and if this gamble doesn't come off for them, they've given up some potentially very valuable pieces of their puzzle by overpaying for Tkachuk's services. Bill Guerin is reportedly on his way to join Rivet in San Jose, and I will looking at what the Sharks give up to secure him with interest.

So what is my point here? Initially, I was planning on simply complaining that Toronto didn't look like making any deadline moves not out of preference, or out of financial problems but because we were handcuffed in terms of what we could offer, and this situation has illustrated that problem nicely. It's a seller's market, and we don't have enough to sell; too much is invested in the young guard, Stajan, Wellwood, Steen and so on, for them to be a factor in any big deals, but at the same time past the "superstars" - Sundin, McCabe and Kaberle - we have very little else that could tip a set of scales. Jeff O'Neill's play hasn't returned the level he reached with Carolina, Hal Gill has been unimpressive and Pavel Kubina definitely wouldn't be an appealing part of a deal, with his five million dollar price-tag (incidentally, he's made a million for every goal he's scored this year. I expect more from an offensive defenseman, personally).

Who knows, maybe next year will see the stars moving for farmhands and low draft picks, I can't say. But for now, and for the forseeable future, things look tough for the teams without sellable assets.

Erik.